Viendo archivo del jueves, 18 noviembre 2004
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2004 Nov 18 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 323 Publicado el 2200Z a las 18 Nov 2004IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 17-2100Z hasta 18-2100Z Solar activity increased to low levels. Region 700
(N04W93) produced the largest flare of the period, an impulsive C3
x-ray flare occurring at 18/1456Z. No sunspots are currently
visible as this region has rotated off the west solar limb. Regions
703 (N13E46) and 704 (N12E75) were numbered today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 17-2100Z a 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels. Isolated
active conditions may be seen at higher latitudes on 20 and 21
November due to coronal hole effects.
III. Probabilidades del evento 19 Nov a 21 Nov
| Clase M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 18 Nov 104 Previsto 19 Nov-21 Nov 100/100/100 Media de 90 Días 18 Nov 106
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 17 Nov 007/006 Estimado Afr/Ap 18 Nov 002/003 Previsto Afr/Ap 19 Nov-21 Nov 002/005-008/012-010/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 19 Nov a 21 Nov
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 15% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 25% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 01% | 10% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 05% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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