Viendo archivo del sábado, 18 diciembre 2004
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2004 Dec 18 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 353 Publicado el 2200Z a las 18 Dec 2004IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 17-2100Z hasta 18-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Two CME's were observed
on LASCO imagery, one at 18/0936Z and the other at 18/1024Z. These
CME's were most likely farside events.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be very
low with a small chance for C-class flares from Regions 712 (S10E37)
and 713 (S10E59).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 17-2100Z a 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active with isolated minor
storming at high latitudes. Active to minor storm periods due to
the continued influence of a geoeffective high speed coronal hole
stream. Solar wind speed at ACE has decreased from approximately
640 km/s to 530 km/s.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III. Probabilidades del evento 19 Dec a 21 Dec
| Clase M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 18 Dec 091 Previsto 19 Dec-21 Dec 090/095/100 Media de 90 Días 18 Dec 104
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 17 Dec 009/015 Estimado Afr/Ap 18 Dec 008/012 Previsto Afr/Ap 19 Dec-21 Dec 006/010-004/005-004/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 19 Dec a 21 Dec
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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