Viendo archivo del jueves, 17 febrero 2005
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2005 Feb 17 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 048 Publicado el 2200Z a las 17 Feb 2005IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 16-2100Z hasta 17-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 734 (S05W34) produced a
C4.9 flare at 2338UTC with an associated halo CME traveling at a
velocity of approximately 900 km/s. Region 735 (S07W06) is the
largest group on the disk but was stable.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low
with a slight chance for an isolated M class flare from Region 735.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 16-2100Z a 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active for 18 February due to a coronal
hole. Activity should remain at unsettled to active levels for 19
February due to possible effects from today's CME. Conditions
should decrease to unsettled on 20 February.
III. Probabilidades del evento 18 Feb a 20 Feb
| Clase M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 17 Feb 111 Previsto 18 Feb-20 Feb 105/100/100 Media de 90 Días 17 Feb 101
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 16 Feb 008/013 Estimado Afr/Ap 17 Feb 005/010 Previsto Afr/Ap 18 Feb-20 Feb 015/020-015/020-012/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 18 Feb a 20 Feb
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 30% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 25% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 25% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 10% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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