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Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2005 May 09 0120 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 128 Publicado el 2200Z a las 08 May 2005

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 07-2100Z hasta 08-2100Z

Solar activity was low. There was one C-class event at 0928 UTC from newly numbered Region 759 (N12E71). The group so far appears to be a moderately large D-type sunspot group. A CME was observed moving off the west limb at 1630 UTC but appears to be from the backside of the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low. There is a slight chance for an isolated M-class event during the next three days.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 07-2100Z a 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from active to major storm levels during the past 24 hours with a severe storm period at high latitudes from 1200-1500 UTC. Magnetopause crossings were seen at GOES-12 at about 1330 UTC and 1610 UTC. Solar wind speed increased during the past 24 hours with peak values just below 900 km/s from 0900-1300 UTC. Intervals of strongly negative Bz were seen around 07/2100-08/0100 UTC and again from 0900-1300 UTC. The solar wind signatures appear to indicate the onset of a coronal hole high speed stream which has been modified by transient flow from the CME of 06/1728 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV protons gradually decayed from enhanced levels to nearly background level by forecast issue time.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at active to minor storm levels for the next two days (09-10 May) as the current disturbance persists. Conditions are expected to subside to mostly unsettled levels by the third day (11 May).
III. Probabilidades del evento 09 May a 11 May
Clase M20%20%20%
Clase X01%01%01%
Protón01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       08 May 101
  Previsto   09 May-11 May  100/100/100
  Media de 90 Días        08 May 093
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 07 May  010/010
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 08 May  040/070
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 09 May-11 May  025/030-020/030-010/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 09 May a 11 May
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo20%30%25%
Tormenta Menor35%25%15%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa30%20%10%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo15%25%35%
Tormenta Menor35%35%20%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa40%30%15%

All times in UTC

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