Viendo archivo del viernes, 13 mayo 2005

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2005 May 13 2210 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 133 Publicado el 2200Z a las 13 May 2005

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 12-2100Z hasta 13-2100Z

Solar activity was high. Region 759 (N12E06) produced an M8/2b flare at 13/1657 UTC. The flare was associated with significant radio output that included type II/IV sweeps and a 2900 sfu burst at 2695 MHz. This event was also associated with an apparent Earth-directed CME. Region 758 (S09W81) only managed to generate a few minor flares over the past 24 hours.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Most activity is expected to occur in Regions 758 and 759.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 12-2100Z a 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is enhanced from the M8 flare discussed in Part IA but has not yet crossed the 10 pfu event threshold. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was high.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet to unsettled for the next 24 hours. Storm conditions are possible on 15 and 16 May due to the CME associated with the M8 flare in Region 759. There is a chance that the greater than 10 MeV proton flux could surpass the 10 pfu event threshold on 14 May due to the same major event.
III. Probabilidades del evento 14 May a 16 May
Clase M80%80%80%
Clase X15%10%05%
Protón30%20%10%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       13 May 126
  Previsto   14 May-16 May  120/110/100
  Media de 90 Días        13 May 093
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 12 May  013/017
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 13 May  025/028
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 14 May-16 May  012/015-050/075-030/040
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 14 May a 16 May
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo25%20%20%
Tormenta Menor10%50%50%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa05%30%30%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo25%10%10%
Tormenta Menor10%60%60%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa05%30%30%

All times in UTC

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