Viendo archivo del jueves, 19 mayo 2005
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2005 May 19 2210 UTC# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 139 Publicado el 2200Z a las 19 May 2005IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 18-2100Z hasta 19-2100Z Solar activity was at very low levels. Region 759
(N12W75) has decayed into a single HHX alpha spot group as it nears
the solar west limb. Region 763 (S16W35) underwent further decay
this period and is now a simple BXO beta spot group. Region 765
(N09E65) was numbered today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at
very low levels.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 18-2100Z a 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached very high
levels today.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels throughout
the period. Isolated active periods are possible on 20 May due to a
slight chance of the CME seen on 17 May becoming geoeffective.
III. Probabilidades del evento 20 May a 22 May
| Clase M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 19 May 085 Previsto 20 May-22 May 080/080/085 Media de 90 Días 19 May 092
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 18 May 006/013 Estimado Afr/Ap 19 May 005/010 Previsto Afr/Ap 20 May-22 May 008/015-005/010-005/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 20 May a 22 May
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 20% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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