Viendo archivo del sábado, 28 mayo 2005
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2005 May 28 2210 UTC# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 148 Publicado el 2200Z a las 28 May 2005IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 27-2100Z hasta 28-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 767 (S08W16) was
responsible for two C-class flares. The largest was a C5 flare at
28/0230 UTC. Growth in this region has slowed over the summary
period. At 28/1726 UTC a C1 flare was produced by a region behind
the east limb at approximately S08.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 767, still has the potential to produce low
level M-class flares.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 27-2100Z a 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. Active periods are due to
the effects of a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream. At
approximately 28/0330 UTC a Co-rotating Interaction Region (CIR) was
observed at ACE preceding the coronal hole high speed stream. Solar
wind speed at ACE increased from approximately 275 km/s to 550 km/s
by the end of the summary period. The greater than 2 MeV electron
flux at geosynchronous orbit was high again today.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at active to minor storm levels with isolated major
storm conditions at higher latitudes on 29 May. Heightened activity
is due to the combined effects of a coronal hole high speed stream,
and the influence of the CMEs from Region 767 observed on 26 May.
Activity will diminish to quiet to unsettled levels by 31 May.
III. Probabilidades del evento 29 May a 31 May
| Clase M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 28 May 092 Previsto 29 May-31 May 095/100/100 Media de 90 Días 28 May 092
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 27 May 001/004 Estimado Afr/Ap 28 May 012/020 Previsto Afr/Ap 29 May-31 May 020/020-015/015-008/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 29 May a 31 May
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 25% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 50% | 40% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 20% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 15% | 10% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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