Viendo archivo del jueves, 6 julio 2006

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2006 Jul 06 2203 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 187 Publicado el 2200Z a las 06 Jul 2006

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 05-2100Z hasta 06-2100Z

Solar activity was moderate with a single M-class flare (M2/2F) occurring at 0836Z accompanied by type II and type IV radio sweeps. The estimated shock speed of the type II radio sweep was 565 km/sec. The M2 was associated with a disappearing solar filament (extent of 11 degrees) and a partial halo CME (plane of sky speed of 824 km/sec) from the southwest limb. Region 898 (S08W41) features a large negative polarity leader spot with a fragment splitting off to the southwest. There is an incursion of positive polarity flux penetrating the main spot. Region 899 (S05E56) was quiet and stable.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low, but there is a chance for an isolated M-class flare.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 05-2100Z a 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with an active interval from 05/2100 - 06/0300Z. The solar wind speed remains elevated due to a coronal hole high speed stream but has steadily declined during the past 24 hours. An enhancement of greater than 10 MeV protons began around 1030 UTC in response to the M2 flare and CME. The maximum flux reached approximately 2 PFU. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled for July 07 - 08. An increase to active, with a chance for periods of minor storm levels may occur sometime July 09 due to the arrival of the flank of today's CME.
III. Probabilidades del evento 07 Jul a 09 Jul
Clase M20%20%20%
Clase X01%01%01%
Protón01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       06 Jul 085
  Previsto   07 Jul-09 Jul  085/085/085
  Media de 90 Días        06 Jul 081
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 05 Jul  018/019
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 06 Jul  012/010
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 07 Jul-09 Jul  007/008-007/010-020/025
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 07 Jul a 09 Jul
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo20%20%35%
Tormenta Menor05%05%25%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%20%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo20%25%35%
Tormenta Menor05%15%30%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%10%25%

All times in UTC

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