Viendo archivo del lunes, 15 enero 2007
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2007 Jan 15 2204 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 015 Publicado el 2200Z a las 15 Jan 2007IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 14-2100Z hasta 15-2100Z Solar activity increased to low levels. Region 938
(N02E35) is the only spotted region on the visible disk. This
region produced multiple B-class flares today along with a C1/Sf
event occurring at 15/0308Z. A decay in the sunspot area was
observed during the period. Observations indicate that there is
some magnetic complexity in the leading portion of this beta sunspot
group.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels. Isolated C-class events from Region 938
remain possible.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 14-2100Z a 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to major storm levels. A
recurrent coronal hole high speed stream became geoeffective at
approximately 15/0700Z. Middle and high latitudes experienced major
storm conditions between 15/1200 and 1500Z. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again
today.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly unsettled to active levels on 16 and
17 January. Isolated minor to major storm conditions are possible
on these two days due to a recurrent coronal hole. A return to
predominantly unsettled levels is expected on 18 January as the
coronal hole wanes.
III. Probabilidades del evento 16 Jan a 18 Jan
| Clase M | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 15 Jan 082 Previsto 16 Jan-18 Jan 080/080/080 Media de 90 Días 15 Jan 084
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 14 Jan 002/002 Estimado Afr/Ap 15 Jan 015/020 Previsto Afr/Ap 16 Jan-18 Jan 015/020-012/020-010/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 16 Jan a 18 Jan
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 25% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 35% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 15% | 15% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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