Viendo archivo del jueves, 15 octubre 2009
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2009 Oct 15 2201 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 288 Publicado el 2200Z a las 15 Oct 2009IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 14-2100Z hasta 15-2100Z Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed.
The visible disk remained spotless.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 14-2100Z a 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. At approximately 15/0500Z, ACE
satellite measurements observed increases in temperature, density
and velocity, all indicative of a CIR in advance of a weak coronal
hole wind stream. Wind speeds increased from a low of about 300
km/s to near 430 km/s, while the Bz component of the IMF indicated a
weak southward trend of near -5 nT.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day 1 (16 October) as
the equatorward extension of the northern crown coronal hole
continues to influence the field. Activity is expected to be mostly
quiet on days 2 and 3 (17 - 18 October) as coronal hole effects
wane.
III. Probabilidades del evento 16 Oct a 18 Oct
| Clase M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 15 Oct 070 Previsto 16 Oct-18 Oct 072/072/072 Media de 90 Días 15 Oct 069
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 14 Oct 000/002 Estimado Afr/Ap 15 Oct 005/007 Previsto Afr/Ap 16 Oct-18 Oct 007/007-005/005-005/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 16 Oct a 18 Oct
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Menor | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| Tormenta Menor | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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