Viendo archivo del jueves, 21 octubre 2010

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2010 Oct 21 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 294 Publicado el 2200Z a las 21 Oct 2010

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 20-2100Z hasta 21-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. Todays activity consisted of occasional, low-level B-class flares. Most of these were either from Region 1112 (S20, behind west limb) or Region 1117 (N23E48), although at least one event appeared to originate from a new group just behind the East limb (around N25). Regions 1113 (N16W31) and 1115 (S29W13) were quiet and stable.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be very low, although there is a slight chance for an isolated C-class event during the next three days (22-24 October).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 20-2100Z a 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be generally quiet for the first day (22 October) and about halfway through the second day (23 October). Sometime around mid-day on 23 October and continuing through the third day (24 October), an increase to unsettled levels with a chance for active periods is expected. There is also a chance for isolated storm periods at some locations during this interval. The increase is forecast because of expected effects from a high speed solar wind stream from a favorably positioned coronal hole.
III. Probabilidades del evento 22 Oct a 24 Oct
Clase M01%01%01%
Clase X01%01%01%
Protón01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       21 Oct 084
  Previsto   22 Oct-24 Oct  082/082/082
  Media de 90 Días        21 Oct 081
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 20 Oct  003/004
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 21 Oct  003/005
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 22 Oct-24 Oct  005/005-010/010-015/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 22 Oct a 24 Oct
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo05%30%40%
Tormenta Menor01%15%20%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%05%05%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo05%35%45%
Tormenta Menor01%20%25%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%10%15%

All times in UTC

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