Viendo archivo del martes, 4 enero 2011
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2011 Jan 04 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 004 Publicado el 2200Z a las 04 Jan 2011IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 03-2100Z hasta 04-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels during the period. A
C1/Sf was observed from Region 1142 (S12W05) at 03/2335Z while
Region 1141 (N35W64) produced a C1 at 04/0325Z. During the period,
Region 1141 grew in both area and extent while developing penumbra
on both poles. Region 1142 decreased slightly in area and extent,
but increased in spot count. Both these regions retained a bi-polar
magnetic configuration. Region 1140 (N34E14) remained relatively
unchanged.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at
predominately very low to low levels during the forecast period (05
- 07 January) with a slight chance for an isolated M-class flare.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 03-2100Z a 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at mostly quiet levels.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet levels during day 1 (05 January) of the
forecast period. Activity is expected to increase to quiet to
unsettled levels on days 2 and 3 (06 - 07 January) as a recurrent
coronal hole high speed stream begins to disturb the field.
III. Probabilidades del evento 05 Jan a 07 Jan
| Clase M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 04 Jan 091 Previsto 05 Jan-07 Jan 092/090/090 Media de 90 Días 04 Jan 083
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 03 Jan 003/004 Estimado Afr/Ap 04 Jan 004/005 Previsto Afr/Ap 05 Jan-07 Jan 005/005-007/007-007/007
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 05 Jan a 07 Jan
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 05% | 10% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 15% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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