Viendo archivo del viernes, 21 enero 2011
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2011 Jan 21 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 021 Publicado el 2200Z a las 21 Jan 2011IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 20-2100Z hasta 21-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 1147 (N24W07) and new
Region 1149 (N18W05) produced several C-class flares during the
period. Region 1149 produced a C3 flare at 21/0417Z. This was the
largest flare observed during the past 24 hours.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low
with a slight chance for an isolated M-class flare from Region 1149.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 20-2100Z a 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled on day one (22 January), due to a
coronal hole high-speed stream (CH HSS). Activity should decrease to
quiet levels on days two and three (23 - 24 January) as the effects
of the CH HSS wane.
III. Probabilidades del evento 22 Jan a 24 Jan
| Clase M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 21 Jan 088 Previsto 22 Jan-24 Jan 085/085/085 Media de 90 Días 21 Jan 084
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 20 Jan 004/003 Estimado Afr/Ap 21 Jan 005/005 Previsto Afr/Ap 22 Jan-24 Jan 007/007-005/005-005/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 22 Jan a 24 Jan
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| Tormenta Menor | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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