Viendo archivo del martes, 1 febrero 2011
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2011 Feb 01 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 032 Publicado el 2200Z a las 01 Feb 2011IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 31-2100Z hasta 01-2100Z Solar activity was very low.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low with the chance for a C-class flare for the next 3 days
(2-4 February).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 31-2100Z a 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to unsettled until a period of
active conditions occurred at mid latitudes at 01/18Z associated
with the onset of recurrent coronal hole effects.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active with a chance for a minor storm
on day 1 (2 February) due to coronal hole effects along with
intermittent periods of Bz south. On day 2 (3 February), unsettled
to active conditions are forecast until the anticipated mid-day
arrival of the CME from 30 January, when an isolated minor storm
will become likely. Conditions on day 3 (4 February) are expected to
be mostly unsettled to active as coronal hole effects begin to wane.
III. Probabilidades del evento 02 Feb a 04 Feb
| Clase M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 01 Feb 080 Previsto 02 Feb-04 Feb 080/080/080 Media de 90 Días 01 Feb 084
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 31 Jan 004/005 Estimado Afr/Ap 01 Feb 010/009 Previsto Afr/Ap 02 Feb-04 Feb 012/012-015/015-008/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 02 Feb a 04 Feb
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 60% | 35% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 50% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 15% | 10% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 60% | 20% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 60% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 20% | 15% |
All times in UTC
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