Viendo archivo del viernes, 4 febrero 2011
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2011 Feb 04 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 035 Publicado el 2200Z a las 04 Feb 2011IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 03-2100Z hasta 04-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Region 1152 (S18W01)
produced a few B-class x-ray flares during the period. Newly
numbered Region 1153 (N1518) remained stable and quiet.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be
predominately very low with a chance for a C-class x-ray event for
the next 3 days (5-7 February).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 03-2100Z a 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was predominately quiet with an isolated
unsettled period between 04/03Z-04/06Z and an active period between
04/18Z and 04/21Z. A sudden impulse of 8 nT was observed at 04/0236Z
in association with a reverse shock behind the slow moving CME from
30 January. Solar wind speeds reached near 500 km/s and Bz was
sustained between -15 and -20 nT between 04/18Z and 04/21Z.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
forecast to be unsettled to active with a chance for an isolated
minor storm early, then mostly quiet to unsettled for the second
half of day 1 (5 February). Conditions are forecast to be
predominately quiet on days 2 and 3 (6-7 February) as coronal hole
effects wane.
III. Probabilidades del evento 05 Feb a 07 Feb
| Clase M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 04 Feb 082 Previsto 05 Feb-07 Feb 082/082/082 Media de 90 Días 04 Feb 084
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 03 Feb 000/001 Estimado Afr/Ap 04 Feb 010/010 Previsto Afr/Ap 05 Feb-07 Feb 008/008-005/005-005/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 05 Feb a 07 Feb
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 20% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 05% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 50% | 20% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 10% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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