Viendo archivo del sábado, 5 marzo 2011

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2011 Mar 05 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 064 Publicado el 2200Z a las 05 Mar 2011

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 04-2100Z hasta 05-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Region 1163 (N17W51), 1164 (N24W34) and Region 1165 (S21W52) produced several low level C-class flares during the last 24 hours. Region 1164 and 1166 (N10E41) have both continued to grow in white light areal coverage and spot count. Region 1164 is a Fkc type spot group and has maintained its Beta-Gamma-Delta magnetic configuration. Region 1166 is a Eki type spot group and has formed a Beta-Gamma magnetic configuration.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for an M-class event.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 04-2100Z a 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled. Observations from the ACE spacecraft indicate very little influence is left from the coronal hole high speed stream which has dominated for the past five days. Solar wind speeds are now averaging below 500 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels throughout the period.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels with isolated periods of active conditions, and a slight chance for minor storm periods at high latitudes, for the next two days (06-07 March). The activity is expected due to the possible arrival of the CME observed on 03 March. Predominately quiet conditions are expected to return on day three (08 March).
III. Probabilidades del evento 06 Mar a 08 Mar
Clase M45%45%45%
Clase X05%05%05%
Protón01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       05 Mar 135
  Previsto   06 Mar-08 Mar  130/130/130
  Media de 90 Días        05 Mar 089
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 04 Mar  007/010
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 05 Mar  004/005
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 06 Mar-08 Mar  008/008-008/008-005/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 06 Mar a 08 Mar
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo20%20%05%
Tormenta Menor05%05%01%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo30%30%05%
Tormenta Menor10%10%01%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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