Viendo archivo del sábado, 12 marzo 2011
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2011 Mar 12 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 071 Publicado el 2200Z a las 12 Mar 2011IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 11-2100Z hasta 12-2100Z Solar activity was moderate. Region 1166 (N08W52)
produced an M1/2n flare at 12/0443 and a C9/1F at 12/1527Z. Both
flares were accompanied by a Type II radio emissions and waves in
SDO/AIA 193 imagery. Region 1166 maintained its complex
Beta-Gamma-Delta magnetic characteristics and ended the period as an
Ekc type spot group. Regions 1169 (N19W22) and 1172 (N12E54) were
stable.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate for the next three days (13-15 March).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 11-2100Z a 12-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to minor storm levels.
A solar sector boundary crossing was observed at the ACE spacecraft
late on 11 March; the phi angle shifting to the positive sector at
approximately 11/2200Z. Solar wind speed at ACE rose steadily,
ending the period near 550 km/s as the coronal hole high speed
stream became geoeffective. The initially southward Bz component of
the interplanetary magnetic field turned mostly northward after
11/0000Z.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active for the next three days under the
continued effects of the coronal hole high speed stream. There is a
slight chance for minor storm conditions at high latitudes.
III. Probabilidades del evento 13 Mar a 15 Mar
| Clase M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 12 Mar 121 Previsto 13 Mar-15 Mar 120/120/120 Media de 90 Días 12 Mar 093
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 11 Mar 018/040 Estimado Afr/Ap 12 Mar 010/025 Previsto Afr/Ap 13 Mar-15 Mar 012/018-010/012-010/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 13 Mar a 15 Mar
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 20% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 10% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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