Viendo archivo del lunes, 14 marzo 2011

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2011 Mar 14 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 073 Publicado el 2200Z a las 14 Mar 2011

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 13-2100Z hasta 14-2100Z

Solar activity was moderate. Region 1169 (N18W47) produced an impulsive M4/1n flare at 14/1952Z with associated radio bursts at the higher range (4995, 8800, 15400 MHz). Region 1166 (N09W78) and 1169 are both Dao type spot groups and contain a beta-gamma magnetic classification.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for an M-class event for day one (15 March). Low activity with a slight chance for an M-class event are expected for days two and three (16-17 March) as Regions 1166 and 1169 make their transit around the west limb of the sun.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 13-2100Z a 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. Solar wind speeds observed by the ACE spacecraft continue to average around 550 km/s under the influence of a coronal hole high speed stream.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be predominantly quiet for the next three days (15-17 March).
III. Probabilidades del evento 15 Mar a 17 Mar
Clase M40%20%15%
Clase X05%01%01%
Protón01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       14 Mar 107
  Previsto   15 Mar-17 Mar  105/100/100
  Media de 90 Días        14 Mar 094
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 13 Mar  005/006
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 14 Mar  003/005
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 15 Mar-17 Mar  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 15 Mar a 17 Mar
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo05%05%05%
Tormenta Menor01%01%01%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo05%05%05%
Tormenta Menor01%01%01%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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