Viendo archivo del lunes, 16 mayo 2011

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2011 May 16 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 136 Publicado el 2200Z a las 16 May 2011

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 15-2100Z hasta 16-2100Z

Solar activity was low during the past 24 hours. Region 1208 (N08W64) produced a C4 event at 15/2334Z. An associated CME was first observed on LASCO C2 imagery at 16/0024Z and had an estimated plane-of-sky speed of 250 km/s. It is not expected to be geoeffective. New Region 1216 (S14E66) was numbered today and is considered an Hsx group at this time.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to remain low for the next three days (17-19 May).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 15-2100Z a 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with an isolated active period at 15/1800Z due the effects of a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS).
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled with a chance for isolated active periods for day one (17 May). A decline from quiet to unsettled to mostly quiet conditions is expected on days two and three (18-19 May) as the CH HSS gradually subsides.
III. Probabilidades del evento 17 May a 19 May
Clase M05%05%05%
Clase X01%01%01%
Protón01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       16 May 092
  Previsto   17 May-19 May  090/090/095
  Media de 90 Días        16 May 109
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 15 May  009/011
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 16 May  010/012
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 17 May-19 May  008/010-005/005-005/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 17 May a 19 May
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo10%10%05%
Tormenta Menor05%01%01%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo15%10%05%
Tormenta Menor05%01%01%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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