Viendo archivo del miércoles, 22 junio 2011
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2011 Jun 23 0135 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 173 Publicado el 2200Z a las 22 Jun 2011 :::::::::: CORRECTED COPY ::::::::::IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 21-2100Z hasta 22-2100Z Solar activity was very low. There was only one flare
during the past 24 hours, a B2 at 0458Z from Region 1239 (N18W14).
Region 1236 (N16W32) is the largest region on the disk but has
decayed somewhat and is now a 140 millionths, C-type sunspot group.
Region 1239 and 1240 (S19E16) are both small, B-type sunspot groups.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be very
low with a chance for an isolated C-class flare.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 21-2100Z a 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled during the past 24
hours. Observations of the solar wind from the ACE spacecraft
indicate a noticeable increase in solar wind velocity during the
last three hours of the analysis interval with end-of-period speeds
at about 600 km/s. The signatures appear to be consistent with a
high speed stream from a favorably positioned coronal hole.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly active with a chance for minor storm periods
at mid-latitudes and major storm periods at high latitudes for the
next two days (23-24 June). Effects from the high speed stream
should prevail early on the 23rd. An additional contribution to
activity is expected sometime between 1200-1800Z on the 23rd due to
the arrival of the halo CME observed on 21 June. Conditions should
decrease to unsettled to active levels for the third day (25 June).
III. Probabilidades del evento 23 Jun a 25 Jun
| Clase M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 22 Jun 093 Previsto 23 Jun-25 Jun 095/095/095 Media de 90 Días 22 Jun 103
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 21 Jun 008/010 Estimado Afr/Ap 22 Jun 007/008 Previsto Afr/Ap 23 Jun-25 Jun 018/018-025/030-012/020
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 23 Jun a 25 Jun
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 30% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 30% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 15% | 20% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 25% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 35% | 35% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 25% | 30% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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