Viendo archivo del martes, 12 julio 2011
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2011 Jul 12 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 193 Publicado el 2200Z a las 12 Jul 2011IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 11-2100Z hasta 12-2100Z Solar activity was low during the past 24 hours. Region
1247 (S18W40) produced a C1 event at 12/1449Z and has decayed to a
Cao-type region while maintaining a beta-gamma magnetic
configuration. Region 1250 (S27E18) has shown slight growth in areal
coverage and is now considered to have a beta-gamma classification.
All other regions on the disk remained relatively quiet and stable.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low
with a slight chance for an isolated M-class event for the next
three days (12 July).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 11-2100Z a 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled during the past 24
hours. ACE spacecraft measurements indicated solar wind velocities
reached approximately 760 km/s at 12/1530Z due to a geoeffective
coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the
period.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with a chance for isolated active
periods on day one (13 July) due to residual effects from the CH
HSS. Conditions are expected to be unsettled to active with a chance
for isolated minor storm conditions on day two (14 July) due to
effects from the CME observed on 11 July. Mostly quiet conditions
are expected to return on day three (15 July) as effects from the
CME subside.
III. Probabilidades del evento 13 Jul a 15 Jul
| Clase M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 12 Jul 092 Previsto 13 Jul-15 Jul 094/094/094 Media de 90 Días 12 Jul 098
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 11 Jul 010/013 Estimado Afr/Ap 12 Jul 008/012 Previsto Afr/Ap 13 Jul-15 Jul 010/012-015/015-005/007
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 13 Jul a 15 Jul
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 20% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 15% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 25% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 15% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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