Viendo archivo del viernes, 19 agosto 2011
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2011 Aug 19 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 231 Publicado el 2200Z a las 19 Aug 2011IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 18-2100Z hasta 19-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Region 1271 (N16E25) did
not produce any significant activity during the past 24 hours,
although it did retain a large Esi type spot group with beta-gamma
magnetic characteristics. The other two regions were small and
simple.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low
on Day 1 (20 Aug), becoming low with a chance for moderate activity
on Days 2 and 3 (21-22 Aug) when old Region 1261 (N15, L=347)
returns.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 18-2100Z a 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet and the solar wind at the ACE
spacecraft was unremarkable.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet levels on Day 1 (20 Aug) and rise to
unsettled levels with a chance for active conditions on Day 2 (21
Aug). The rise in activity is expected with the arrival of a
coronal hole high speed stream. By Day 3 (22 Aug), a return to
mostly quiet conditions is expected as weak coronal hole effects
wane.
III. Probabilidades del evento 20 Aug a 22 Aug
| Clase M | 05% | 45% | 45% |
| Clase X | 01% | 05% | 10% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 19 Aug 098 Previsto 20 Aug-22 Aug 100/100/100 Media de 90 Días 19 Aug 096
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 18 Aug 001/003 Estimado Afr/Ap 19 Aug 003/003 Previsto Afr/Ap 20 Aug-22 Aug 005/005-010/012-005/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 20 Aug a 22 Aug
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 25% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 10% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 50% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 15% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 10% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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