Viendo archivo del jueves, 1 septiembre 2011

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2011 Sep 01 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 244 Publicado el 2200Z a las 01 Sep 2011

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 31-2100Z hasta 01-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Region 1283 (N12E49) produced two C2/Sf flares during the period, the first one at 01/1248Z and the second one at 01/1822Z. The region exhibited trailer spot growth and remained a beta magnetic configuration. Region 1282 (N25W26) had intermediate spot decay between the leader and trailer, but some growth in the leader section of the region. The remainder of the regions were quiet and stable. No Earth-directed CMEs were detected during the period.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low through the period (02 - 04 September) with a slight chance for M-class activity.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 31-2100Z a 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. Solar wind speeds, as measured at the ACE satellite, showed a steady decline from about 350 km/s to end the period near 290 km/s. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field did not vary much beyond +/- 2 nT.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels during day one (02 September). Activity is expected to increase to quiet to unsettled levels, with isolated active periods, on days two and three (03 - 04 September). This increase in activity is due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream that is expected to rotate into a geoeffective position.
III. Probabilidades del evento 02 Sep a 04 Sep
Clase M15%15%15%
Clase X01%01%01%
Protón01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       01 Sep 112
  Previsto   02 Sep-04 Sep  110/110/110
  Media de 90 Días        01 Sep 097
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 31 Aug  001/002
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 01 Sep  002/005
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 02 Sep-04 Sep  005/005-008/008-008/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 02 Sep a 04 Sep
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo10%20%20%
Tormenta Menor01%05%05%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo15%25%25%
Tormenta Menor01%10%10%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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