Viendo archivo del sábado, 10 septiembre 2011
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2011 Sep 10 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 253 Publicado el 2200Z a las 10 Sep 2011IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 09-2100Z hasta 10-2100Z Solar activity was moderate. A significant filament
eruption (N10W48) occurred around 10/0300Z with an associated
partial-halo CME (plane-of-sky speed of 620 km/s). Region 1283
(N13W73) produced an M1/Sn at 10/0740Z with an associated limb-event
CME. Analysis of the potential geoeffectiveness of these CMEs is on
going. Region 1283 shows penumbral growth. Region 1289 (N23E24)
produced B and C class activity, and has shown trailer spot decay.
New Region 1291 (N23W03) was numbered during the period and produced
a B-class flare.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate during the period (11 - 13 September) with a slight
chance for another X-class flare from Region 1283 and developing
Region 1289.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 09-2100Z a 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to minor storm levels.
Activity was most likely due to continuing CME effects. ACE data
showed that Bt peaked at 20nT, Bz dipped south to -13nT, density
spiked to 16p/cc, wind speeds ranged between 382 - 553 km/s, and
temperature remained high, but decreased between 10/0330 - 1400Z.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled with a chance for active periods on day 1
(11 September) as CME effects subside, but a recurrent coronal hole
high speed stream (CH HSS) is expected to become geoeffective.
Unsettled activity is expected to continue on days 2 and 3 (12 - 13
September) under the effects of the CH HSS.
III. Probabilidades del evento 11 Sep a 13 Sep
| Clase M | 65% | 60% | 55% |
| Clase X | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 10 Sep 116 Previsto 11 Sep-13 Sep 115/115/110 Media de 90 Días 10 Sep 099
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 09 Sep 013/036 Estimado Afr/Ap 10 Sep 022/030 Previsto Afr/Ap 11 Sep-13 Sep 012/015-008/008-008/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 11 Sep a 13 Sep
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 25% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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