Viendo archivo del martes, 27 septiembre 2011

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2011 Sep 27 2210 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

:::::::::: CORRECTED COPY :::::::::: SDF Número 270 Publicado el 2200Z a las 27 Sep 2011

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 26-2100Z hasta 27-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Several C-class flares occurred during the period from Region 1302 (N13E08). The largest of these was a C6 flare at 27/2058Z.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low, with a chance for M-class during the period (28-30 September). There will also be a chance for an X-class flare.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 26-2100Z a 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels. An isolated period of major to severe storm levels were observed from 27/0000-0300Z. The greater than 10 MeV proton event began at 23/2255Z, reached a maximum of 35.7 pfu at 26/1155Z, and ended at 27/0430Z. Wind speeds reached 704 km/s at 26/2150Z and decreased to 512 km/s at 27/1703Z.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (28 September). Quiet levels are expected on days two and three (29-30 September).
III. Probabilidades del evento 28 Sep a 30 Sep
Clase M40%40%40%
Clase X25%25%25%
Protón10%10%10%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       27 Sep 139
  Previsto   28 Sep-30 Sep  135/135/130
  Media de 90 Días        27 Sep 109
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 26 Sep  020/067
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 27 Sep  020/040
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 28 Sep-30 Sep  008/015-005/005-005/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 28 Sep a 30 Sep
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo15%05%05%
Tormenta Menor01%01%01%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo20%05%05%
Tormenta Menor05%01%01%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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