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Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2012 Jan 22 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 022 Publicado el 2200Z a las 22 Jan 2012IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 21-2100Z hasta 22-2100Z Solar activity was low. Regions 1401 (N16W26) and 1402
(N29W23) produced occasional C-class flares. The largest of these
was a C7 at 22/0257Z. Region 1401 showed gradual spot decay during
the period. Gradual trailer spot growth was observed in Region 1402.
No significant changes were observed in the remaining spotted
regions. No new regions were numbered. There was no Earth-directed
CME activity observed during the period.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low
during the period (23 - 25 January) with a chance for an isolated
M-class flare from Region 1401 or Region 1402.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 21-2100Z a 22-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to minor storm levels
with brief major storm levels at high latitudes. An interplanetary
shock passed the ACE spacecraft at approximately 22/0514Z, likely
indicating the arrival of the halo-CME observed on 19 January. This
was followed by a geomagnetic sudden impulse (SI) at 22/0614Z (31
nT, Boulder USGS magnetometer). Field activity increased to
unsettled to minor storm levels following the SI.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels with a chance for active
levels on day 1 (23 January) as CME effects gradually subside. Quiet
conditions are expected during days 2 - 3 (24 - 25 January).
III. Probabilidades del evento 23 Jan a 25 Jan
| Clase M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 22 Jan 141 Previsto 23 Jan-25 Jan 140/140/140 Media de 90 Días 22 Jan 143
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 21 Jan 006/006 Estimado Afr/Ap 22 Jan 013/018 Previsto Afr/Ap 23 Jan-25 Jan 010/012-004/005-004/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 23 Jan a 25 Jan
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 01% | 01% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 01% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 45% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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