Viendo archivo del viernes, 9 marzo 2012
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2012 Mar 09 2210 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
**********CORRECTED COPY********** SDF Número 069 Publicado el 2200Z a las 09 Mar 2012IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 08-2100Z hasta 09-2100Z Solar activity reached high levels today. Region 1429
(N18W13) produced an M6 flare at 09/0353Z. Associated with this
event was Type II (1285 km/s) and Type IV radio sweeps along with a
full halo CME first seen in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery at 09/0426Z. The
CME had an estimated plane-of-sky speed of 850 km/s in STEREO B COR2
imagery. Separation and slight decay within the intermediate area
was observed in Region 1429, however it still remained a large Ekc
spot group with a Beta-Gamma-Delta magnetic configuration. A new
spot group rotated onto the NE limb and was numbered Region 1432
(N18E69). This new region is too close to the limb to accurately
determine the spot and magnetic classification, however it produced
a C9 flare at 09/2025Z.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to continue
at low to moderate levels with a chance for X-class activity from
Region 1429 for the next three days (10 - 12 March).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 08-2100Z a 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at active to severe storm conditions due to
continued activity from the sheath region associated with the 07
March CME. At approximately 09/0049Z, the Bz component of the
interplanetary magnetic field started to rotate towards a more
magnetically connected polarity. Bz continued to be negative for
several hours reaching values near -17 nT with an approximate solar
wind speed over 600 km/s. The geomagnetic field responded with
major to severe storm periods during the periods 09/0300 - 1500Z.
Solar wind remained elevated around 600 km/s by the end of the
period. The greater than 10 MeV proton event that began at 07/0510Z
is ongoing. The greater than 100 MeV proton event that began at
07/0405 is ongoing.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be under the influence of the current CME through early
on day 1. Unsettled to active conditions, with isolated minor storm
periods, are possible is expected as the CME continues to wane.
Early to mid-day on day 2 (11 March), the CME associated with
todays M-6 flare is expected to become geoeffective. Active to
severe storm periods are expected with this event. Unsettled to
active conditions, with isolated minor storm periods, are possible
on day 3 (12 March) as conditions are expected to slowly dissipate.
III. Probabilidades del evento 10 Mar a 12 Mar
| Clase M | 80% | 80% | 80% |
| Clase X | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Protón | 99% | 99% | 60% |
| PCAF | red | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 09 Mar 146 Previsto 10 Mar-12 Mar 150/150/150 Media de 90 Días 09 Mar 125
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 08 Mar 021/028 Estimado Afr/Ap 09 Mar 046/073 Previsto Afr/Ap 10 Mar-12 Mar 015/022-033/070-017/030
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 10 Mar a 12 Mar
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 35% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 20% | 10% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 20% | 40% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 30% | 30% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 15% | 50% | 25% |
All times in UTC
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