Viendo archivo del martes, 17 abril 2012
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2012 Apr 17 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 108 Publicado el 2200Z a las 17 Apr 2012IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 16-2100Z hasta 17-2100Z Solar activity has been low for the past 24 hours. A
long duration C1 flare was observed from new Region 1461 (N13E66) at
17/0809Z. An associated CME became visible in LASCO C2 imagery at
17/0800Z but does not appear to be Earth-directed. A filament
eruption occurred at approximately 17/1330Z near N24W40. The
associated CME was first visible in LASCO C2 imagery at 17/1424Z but
is not expected to be geoeffective. New Region 1460 (N16E26) was
also numbered overnight and is considered a Dso-beta type spot
group. Region 1459 (S15E40) has shown a significant decrease in
areal coverage and is now a Dao-beta type spot group.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low
with a slight chance for an M-class flare for the next three days
(18-20 April).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 16-2100Z a 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet during the past 24 hours. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels during the period.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet on days one and two (18-19 April). Quiet
to unsettled conditions are expected with a chance for isolated
active periods on day three (20 April) due to a recurrent Solar
Sector Boundary Crossing (SSBC).
III. Probabilidades del evento 18 Apr a 20 Apr
| Clase M | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 17 Apr 114 Previsto 18 Apr-20 Apr 115/115/110 Media de 90 Días 17 Apr 112
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 16 Apr 005/005 Estimado Afr/Ap 17 Apr 006/008 Previsto Afr/Ap 18 Apr-20 Apr 004/005-004/005-007/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 18 Apr a 20 Apr
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 10% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 01% | 01% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 15% | 30% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 10% | 30% |
All times in UTC
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