Viendo archivo del miércoles, 9 mayo 2012
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2012 May 09 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 130 Publicado el 2200Z a las 09 May 2012IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 08-2100Z hasta 09-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past
24 hours. Region 1476 (N10E22) continues to be the most complex and
most active spot region on the visible disk. It produced an M4/1n
x-ray flare at 09/1232Z, and an M1/1b x-ray flare at 09/1408Z. This
spot region continues to grow in area, reaching 1050 Millionths and
remains a Fkc/beta-gamma-delta configuration.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels for the next three days (10-12 May).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 08-2100Z a 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to active levels for the
past 24 hours.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active with a slight chance for minor
storming on day one (10 May) due to increased wind speeds associated
with the Coronal Hole High Speed Stream (CH HSS). Days two and
three (11-12 May) are expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels as
the effects of the CH HSS begin to wane.
III. Probabilidades del evento 10 May a 12 May
| Clase M | 65% | 65% | 65% |
| Clase X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 09 May 127 Previsto 10 May-12 May 130/130/130 Media de 90 Días 09 May 113
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 08 May 008/008 Estimado Afr/Ap 09 May 017/021 Previsto Afr/Ap 10 May-12 May 015/022-013/015-007/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 10 May a 12 May
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 15% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 05% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 25% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 50% | 25% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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