Viendo archivo del domingo, 1 julio 2012
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2012 Jul 01 2240 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 183 Publicado el 2200Z a las 01 Jul 2012 ::::::::::Corrected Copy::::::::::IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 30-2100Z hasta 01-2100Z Solar activity was moderate. Region 1513 (N16E03)
produced an M2/Sb at 01/1918Z. The region did not show any
significant growth or decay during the period. Region 1515 (S17E17)
continued to grow in areal coverage and is now 850 millionths. New
Region 1517 (N19E26) was numbered overnight.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with isolated M-class flares likely for the next three days (02-04 July).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 30-2100Z a 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was unsettled to active during the past 24
hours due to coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) effects. Minor
storm periods were observed at high latitudes along with an isolated
major storm period from 01/0900-1200Z. Solar wind speeds were steady
at approximately 650 km/s with a total field strength of 5 nT
throughout the period. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with a chance for active storm
periods on days one and two (02-03 July) due to continued CH HSS
effects. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on day three (04
July) as effects from the CH HSS begin to wane.
III. Probabilidades del evento 02 Jul a 04 Jul
| Clase M | 55% | 55% | 55% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 01 Jul 133 Previsto 02 Jul-04 Jul 135/140/140 Media de 90 Días 01 Jul 119
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 30 Jun 021/027 Estimado Afr/Ap 01 Jul 016/018 Previsto Afr/Ap 02 Jul-04 Jul 013/018-013/015-007/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 02 Jul a 04 Jul
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 25% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 10% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 30% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 35% | 35% | 15% |
All times in UTC
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