Viendo archivo del jueves, 6 septiembre 2012

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2012 Sep 06 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 250 Publicado el 2200Z a las 06 Sep 2012

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 05-2100Z hasta 06-2100Z

Solar activity was moderate. Region 1560 (N04W73 - Eai/beta-gamma) produced an impulsive M1 x-ray flare at 06/0413Z as well as occasional low-level C-class flares. No obvious changes were noted in Region 1560, but limb proximity hampered analysis. Region 1564 (S14W13 - Esi/beta) also produced occasional low-level C-class flares. It showed minor spot and penumbral growth in its interior portion. Region 1562 (S22W48 - Dso/beta) showed gradual spot and penumbral growth during the period. No new regions were numbered. No Earth-directed CME activity occurred during the period.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low through the period (07 - 09 September) with a chance for an isolated M-class flare on day 1. There will be a slight chance for an isolated M-class flare during days 2 - 3.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 05-2100Z a 06-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to active levels. Active levels occurred during 06/0000 - 0300Z due to periods of southward IMF Bz and enhanced IMF Bt associated with a solar sector boundary change. Field activity decreased to mostly quiet levels after 06/0300Z.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet levels through the period (07 - 09 September) with a chance for unsettled levels.
III. Probabilidades del evento 07 Sep a 09 Sep
Clase M30%20%20%
Clase X01%01%01%
Protón01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       06 Sep 128
  Previsto   07 Sep-09 Sep  130/125/120
  Media de 90 Días        06 Sep 124
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 05 Sep  024/034
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 06 Sep  009/011
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 07 Sep-09 Sep  007/008-007/007-007/007
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 07 Sep a 09 Sep
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo15%10%10%
Tormenta Menor01%01%01%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo15%20%15%
Tormenta Menor25%20%20%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa20%10%10%

All times in UTC

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