Viendo archivo del viernes, 12 octubre 2012
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2012 Oct 12 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 286 Publicado el 2200Z a las 12 Oct 2012IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 11-2100Z hasta 12-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 1589 (N13E35) was
responsible for several low level C-flares and a C9/1f flare at
12/0820Z. Region 1589 continues to maintain its Beta-Gamma magnetic
classification. New region 1591 (N07E71) rotated onto the disk as a
bipolar D-type group.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low
with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-flare
during the forecast period (13-15 October).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 11-2100Z a 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. Solar wind speed,
measured at the ACE spacecraft, ranged between approximately 450 and
550 km/s. Prolonged periods of southward Bz (near -5 nT) coupled
with enhanced wind speed resulted in an isolated active period
between 12/0300 - 0600Z. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit was at high levels throughout the period.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled on day 1 (13 October). A coronal
hole high speed stream is expected to become geoeffective on days
2-3 (14-15 October) resulting in quiet to unsettled conditions with
a chance for active periods. On day 3, a slight chance exists for a
greater than 10 MeV proton event at geosynchronous orbit as Region
1589 rotates into a more geoeffective position.
III. Probabilidades del evento 13 Oct a 15 Oct
| Clase M | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Clase X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Protón | 01% | 05% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 12 Oct 122 Previsto 13 Oct-15 Oct 125/130/130 Media de 90 Días 12 Oct 118
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 11 Oct 005/006 Estimado Afr/Ap 12 Oct 012/012 Previsto Afr/Ap 13 Oct-15 Oct 007/008-010/012-011/012
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 13 Oct a 15 Oct
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 30% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 30% | 30% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 20% | 40% | 40% |
All times in UTC
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