Viendo archivo del martes, 16 octubre 2012
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2012 Oct 16 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 290 Publicado el 2200Z a las 16 Oct 2012IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 15-2100Z hasta 16-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 1589 (N12W19) produced
todays most notable event, a C3/1f flare at 16/1627Z. Region 1591
(N07E20) showed slight decay and remains the most magnetically
complex region on the disk, but did not produce any flare activity.
Region 1594 (S26E47) showed slight growth during the period. The
other regions on the disk were stable or decaying.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low
with a chance for an isolated M-class event from Regions 1589, 1591,
or 1594 during the next three days (17-19 Oct).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 15-2100Z a 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet during the past 24 hours. The solar
wind velocity at the ACE spacecraft showed a steady downward trend
from initial values around 400 km/s to end-of-day values around 350
km/s. A solar sector boundary change from positive to negative was
observed at 16/1506Z. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit was at high levels throughout the period.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next three days (17-19
Oct).
III. Probabilidades del evento 17 Oct a 19 Oct
| Clase M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 16 Oct 137 Previsto 17 Oct-19 Oct 135/135/135 Media de 90 Días 16 Oct 118
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 15 Oct 007/007 Estimado Afr/Ap 16 Oct 006/006 Previsto Afr/Ap 17 Oct-19 Oct 007/008-007/008-007/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 17 Oct a 19 Oct
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Menor | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 10% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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