Viendo archivo del martes, 30 octubre 2012

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2012 Oct 30 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 304 Publicado el 2200Z a las 30 Oct 2012

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 29-2100Z hasta 30-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. Region 1598 (S11W51) produced a B8 flare at 0137Z. A filament eruption occurred from 0640Z to 0855Z near S32E07 with a heliographic extent of 24 degrees.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for low level activity.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 29-2100Z a 30-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet on day 1 (31 October), increasing to a chance for active levels with the arrival of the 27 and 28 October CMEs late in the day. Unsettled to active with a chance for minor storm levels are expected on day 2 (1 November) from CME effects. On day 3 (2 November) conditions are expected to decline to quiet to unsettled with a chance for active as CME effects subside.
III. Probabilidades del evento 31 Oct a 02 Nov
Clase M01%01%01%
Clase X01%01%01%
Protón01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       30 Oct 106
  Previsto   31 Oct-02 Nov  105/100/095
  Media de 90 Días        30 Oct 121
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 29 Oct  002/004
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 30 Oct  002/003
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 31 Oct-02 Nov  010/012-015/020-007/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 31 Oct a 02 Nov
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo25%45%20%
Tormenta Menor10%15%10%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo10%10%15%
Tormenta Menor20%30%25%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa35%60%25%

All times in UTC

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