Viendo archivo del domingo, 16 diciembre 2012
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2012 Dec 16 2300 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 351 Publicado el 2200Z a las 16 Dec 2012IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 15-2100Z hasta 16-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels due to a single C1 x-ray
event at 16/2103Z from Region 1631 (N20W60). There are currently 4
numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare for days one through three (17 - 19
December).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 15-2100Z a 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 463 km/s at
16/1937Z. Total IMF reached 9.4 nT at 16/0235Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -6.5 nT at 16/0827Z.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels for days one through three (17 - 19
December) with a chance for active periods on 17 December.
III. Probabilidades del evento 17 Dec a 19 Dec
| Clase M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 16 Dec 120 Previsto 17 Dec-19 Dec 125/125/120 Media de 90 Días 16 Dec 120
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 15 Dec 007/006 Estimado Afr/Ap 16 Dec 006/007 Previsto Afr/Ap 17 Dec-19 Dec 012/016-011/012-007/007
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 17 Dec a 19 Dec
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 15% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 01% | 05% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 20% | 20% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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