Viendo archivo del viernes, 18 enero 2013
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2013 Jan 18 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 18 Publicado el 2200Z a las 18 Jan 2013IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 17-2100Z hasta 18-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at
18/1707Z from Region 1654 (N07W59). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for M-class flares on day one (19 Jan). Solar activity
is likely to be low on days two and three (20 - 21 Jan).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 17-2100Z a 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
480 km/s at 18/1850Z. Total IMF reached 17.2 nT at 18/1132Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -9.3 nT at 17/2351Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2057 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to remain mostly quiet until late on day one (19 Jan), when the
geomagnetic field increases to quiet to unsettled conditions with a
chance for an active period with the arrival of the 16 Jan CME.
Unsettled to active conditions with a slight chance for a minor storm
period exists early on day two (20 Jan) with the 16 Jan CME. Conditions
begin to decrease to predominately quiet to unsettled levels starting
midday on day two (20 Jan). Conditions are expected to return to
predominately quiet with a possible unsettled period on day three (21
Jan).
III. Probabilidades del evento 19 Jan a 21 Jan
| Clase M | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 18 Jan 115 Previsto 19 Jan-21 Jan 115/115/110 Media de 90 Días 18 Jan 122
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 17 Jan 012/015 Estimado Afr/Ap 18 Jan 009/009 Previsto Afr/Ap 19 Jan-21 Jan 009/012-015/018-007/012
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 19 Jan a 21 Jan
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 35% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 15% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 10% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 35% | 55% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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