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Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2013 Apr 11 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 101 Publicado el 2200Z a las 11 Apr 2013IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 10-2100Z hasta 11-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M6 event observed at
11/0716Z from Region 1719 (N10W00). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (12 Apr, 13 Apr, 14 Apr).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 10-2100Z a 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 507 km/s at
11/1243Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 11/0712Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -4 nT at 11/0916Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 114 pfu at 11/1645Z.
Protons greater than 100 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak
level of 2 pfu at 11/1400Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 385 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (12 Apr), quiet to major storm levels
on day two (13 Apr) and unsettled to major storm levels on day three (14
Apr). Protons are expected to cross threshold on day one (12 Apr), have
a chance of crossing threshold on day two (13 Apr) and have a slight
chance of crossing threshold on day three (14 Apr).
III. Probabilidades del evento 12 Apr a 14 Apr
| Clase M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Clase X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Protón | 99% | 30% | 10% |
| PCAF | red | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 11 Apr 137 Previsto 12 Apr-14 Apr 138/135/130 Media de 90 Días 11 Apr 113
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 10 Apr 005/004 Estimado Afr/Ap 11 Apr 004/005 Previsto Afr/Ap 12 Apr-14 Apr 006/005-018/026-028/045
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 12 Apr a 14 Apr
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 30% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 01% | 35% | 45% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 10% | 15% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 10% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 20% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 60% | 35% |
All times in UTC
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| Último evento clase X | 30/03/2026 | X1.5 |
| Último evento clase M | 09/04/2026 | M1.0 |
| Últimas tormentas geomagnéticas | 03/04/2026 | Kp7- (G3) |
| Días sin manchas | |
|---|---|
| Last 365 days | 3 días |
| 2026 | 3 días (3%) |
| Último día sin manchas | 24/02/2026 |
| Promedio de manchas solares mensuales | |
|---|---|
| marzo 2026 | 85.9 +7.7 |
| abril 2026 | 94.2 +8.3 |
| Last 30 days | 94.7 +35.4 |
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