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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Emitido: 2013 May 06 1303 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Llamarada solar

Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Protones solares

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
06 May 2013	139	016
07 May 2013	127	010
08 May 2013	125	007

Bulletin

Solar activity has been active during the past 24 hours, featuring one M1.4 flare released by NOAA AR 11739on May 5 with peak time 17:56 UT. In addition, 13 C flares were registered. More C-level flares are expected within the next 48 hours, with a chance for an M flare from AR 11739 and 11734. The IMF started rising at about 7h UT on May 5 (4 nT), and has been turbulent since about 15h UT on May 5. Current values lie around 12 nT, but no large negative excursions of Bz occurred since then. Solar wind speeds as observed by ACE started a turbulent rise at about 15h UT on May 5 (400 km/s), and are now near 520 km/s. These effects are probably caused by a co-rotating interaction region followed by a positive-polarity coronal hole high speed stream. The influence of this high speed stream is expected to decrease on May 7. Geomagnetic activity was at quiet to active levels (K Dourbes between 0 and 4; NOAA Kp between 1 and 3) during the past 24 hours. Quiet to Active (K Dourbes < 5) conditions are expected for May 6 to 8.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 078, based on 17 stations.

Solar indices for 05 May 2013

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	137
AK Chambon La Forêt	///
AK Wingst	012
Estimated Ap	010
Estimated international sunspot number	075 - Based on 25 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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