Viendo archivo del miércoles, 15 mayo 2013
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2013 May 15 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 135 Publicado el 2200Z a las 15 May 2013IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 14-2100Z hasta 15-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a X1 event observed at
15/0148Z from Region 1748 (N11E51). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is likely to be high on
days one, two, and three (16 May, 17 May, 18 May).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 14-2100Z a 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
457 km/s at 15/1605Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 15/1317Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 15/1124Z. Protons greater
than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 23 pfu at
15/1850Z.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (16 May, 18
May) and quiet to active levels on day two (17 May). Protons are
expected to cross threshold on days one, two, and three (16 May, 17 May,
18 May).
III. Probabilidades del evento 16 May a 18 May
| Clase M | 80% | 80% | 80% |
| Clase X | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Protón | 99% | 90% | 90% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 15 May 146 Previsto 16 May-18 May 145/145/145 Media de 90 Días 15 May 120
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 14 May 007/009 Estimado Afr/Ap 15 May 007/010 Previsto Afr/Ap 16 May-18 May 006/008-011/015-008/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 16 May a 18 May
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 30% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 10% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 30% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 25% | 40% | 25% |
All times in UTC
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