Viendo archivo del miércoles, 22 mayo 2013
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2013 May 22 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 142 Publicado el 2200Z a las 22 May 2013IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 21-2100Z hasta 22-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M5 event observed at
22/1332Z from Region 1745 (N13W80). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (23 May, 24 May, 25 May).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 21-2100Z a 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
500 km/s at 22/0442Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 22/2005Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 21/2357Z. Protons greater
than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 279 pfu at
22/2035Z. Protons greater than 100 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 3 pfu at 22/1830Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 722 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to active levels on day one (23 May), quiet to
unsettled levels on day two (24 May) and quiet to active levels on day
three (25 May). Protons are expected to cross threshold on days one and
two (23 May, 24 May) and are likely to cross threshold on day three (25
May).
III. Probabilidades del evento 23 May a 25 May
| Clase M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Clase X | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Protón | 99% | 99% | 70% |
| PCAF | RED | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 22 May 133 Previsto 23 May-25 May 125/125/130 Media de 90 Días 22 May 122
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 21 May 008/008 Estimado Afr/Ap 22 May 009/012 Previsto Afr/Ap 23 May-25 May 012/012-007/015-012/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 23 May a 25 May
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 15% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 05% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 25% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 40% | 25% | 45% |
All times in UTC
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