Viendo archivo del lunes, 24 junio 2013
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2013 Jun 24 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 175 Publicado el 2200Z a las 24 Jun 2013IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 23-2100Z hasta 24-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C9 event observed at
24/1132Z from Region 1778 (S16E49). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for isolated M-class flares on day one (25 Jun) and expected to
be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on day two (26 Jun) and
likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on day three
(27 Jun).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 23-2100Z a 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
618 km/s at 24/1112Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 23/2107Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 23/2115Z. Protons greater
than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 14 pfu at
24/0520Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 10700 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (25 Jun, 26 Jun)
and quiet to active levels on day three (27 Jun). Protons have a chance
of crossing threshold on day one (25 Jun), have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on day two and three (26-27 Jun).
III. Probabilidades del evento 25 Jun a 27 Jun
| Clase M | 30% | 20% | 10% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Protón | 30% | 20% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 24 Jun 121 Previsto 25 Jun-27 Jun 115/115/110 Media de 90 Días 24 Jun 123
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 23 Jun 016/018 Estimado Afr/Ap 24 Jun 013/015 Previsto Afr/Ap 25 Jun-27 Jun 009/010-006/008-009/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 25 Jun a 27 Jun
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 10% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 01% | 01% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 20% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 20% | 15% | 40% |
All times in UTC
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