Viendo archivo del sábado, 29 junio 2013

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Emitido: 2013 Jun 29 1219 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Llamarada solar

Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Protones solares

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
29 Jun 2013	103	037
30 Jun 2013	103	030
01 Jul 2013	106	007

Bulletin

Solar activity has been eruptive during the past 24 hours, featuring one C1.6 flare from NOAA 11778, peaking at 17:05 UT on June 28. More C flares are possible within the next 48 hours, with a slight chance for an M flare. Over the past 24 hours, the solar wind speed showed a generally decreasing trend from about 400 km/s to 350 km/s, until about 3h UT on June 29 when this trend reversed, with current solar wind speeds around 400 km/s. The IMF fluctuated around 12 nT throughout the period. K Dourbes has been at minor storm levels (K Dourbes = 5) between 17h and 19h UT on June 28, and again from 4h UT on June 29 till 8h UT on June 29. K Dourbes levels have been active (K Dourbes = 4) since then. NOAA Kp has reached higher levels: Kp = 5 between 21h UT on June 28 and 0h UT on June 29, Kp = 6 between 0h and 3h UT, Kp = 7 between 3h and 6h UT, and Kp = 5 between 6h and 9h UT. This geomagnetic activity is due to an extended Bz excursion of around -10 nT from 18h UT on June 28 till now. Minor storm levels (K Dourbes = 5) are possible on June 29. On June 30, quiet to active geomagnetic levels (K Dourbes < 5) are expected due to an expected coronal hole high speed stream, with a possible minor storm around the end of June 30 or early on July 1st, due to a glancing blow from the CME of 02:00 UT on June 28.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 050, based on 07 stations.

Solar indices for 28 Jun 2013

Wolf number Catania	088
10cm solar flux	101
AK Chambon La Forêt	046
AK Wingst	023
Estimated Ap	025
Estimated international sunspot number	051 - Based on 15 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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