Viendo archivo del sábado, 27 julio 2013
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2013 Jul 27 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 208 Publicado el 2200Z a las 27 Jul 2013IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 26-2100Z hasta 27-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
26/2149Z from Region 1800 (S08W60). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class
flare on days one, two, and three (28 Jul, 29 Jul, 30 Jul).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 26-2100Z a 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
553 km/s at 26/2141Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 27/1628Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 27/1606Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1430 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (28 Jul) and quiet levels
on days two and three (29 Jul, 30 Jul).
III. Probabilidades del evento 28 Jul a 30 Jul
| Clase M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 27 Jul 108 Previsto 28 Jul-30 Jul 105/110/115 Media de 90 Días 27 Jul 120
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 26 Jul 023/014 Estimado Afr/Ap 27 Jul 010/011 Previsto Afr/Ap 28 Jul-30 Jul 008/008-005/005-004/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 28 Jul a 30 Jul
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 20% | 10% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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