Viendo archivo del miércoles, 31 julio 2013
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2013 Jul 31 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 212 Publicado el 2200Z a las 31 Jul 2013IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 30-2100Z hasta 31-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
30/2219Z from Region 1809 (N12E65). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (01 Aug,
02 Aug, 03 Aug).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 30-2100Z a 31-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 437 km/s at
31/0433Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 31/0340Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -5 nT at 31/1631Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 852 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (01 Aug), quiet to unsettled levels on
day two (02 Aug) and quiet to active levels on day three (03 Aug).
III. Probabilidades del evento 01 Aug a 03 Aug
| Clase M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 31 Jul 109 Previsto 01 Aug-03 Aug 105/105/105 Media de 90 Días 31 Jul 118
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 30 Jul 006/006 Estimado Afr/Ap 31 Jul 005/005 Previsto Afr/Ap 01 Aug-03 Aug 006/005-006/008-011/012
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 01 Aug a 03 Aug
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 15% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 01% | 05% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 25% | 30% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 25% | 40% |
All times in UTC
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