Viendo archivo del miércoles, 7 agosto 2013
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2013 Aug 07 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 219 Publicado el 2200Z a las 07 Aug 2013IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 06-2100Z hasta 07-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (08 Aug,
09 Aug, 10 Aug).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 06-2100Z a 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 526 km/s at
06/2238Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 07/0105Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -4 nT at 07/0524Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 7173 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (08 Aug), quiet to active
levels on day two (09 Aug) and quiet to minor storm levels on day three
(10 Aug).
III. Probabilidades del evento 08 Aug a 10 Aug
| Clase M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 07 Aug 106 Previsto 08 Aug-10 Aug 110/110/110 Media de 90 Días 07 Aug 116
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 06 Aug 006/007 Estimado Afr/Ap 07 Aug 007/008 Previsto Afr/Ap 08 Aug-10 Aug 007/008-009/012-014/018
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 08 Aug a 10 Aug
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 20% | 40% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 10% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 25% | 30% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 30% | 25% | 55% |
All times in UTC
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