Viendo archivo del miércoles, 2 octubre 2013
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2013 Oct 02 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 275 Publicado el 2200Z a las 02 Oct 2013IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 01-2100Z hasta 02-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (03 Oct,
04 Oct, 05 Oct).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 01-2100Z a 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to major storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 664 km/s at 02/0241Z. Total IMF reached 32 nT at 02/0424Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -29 nT at 02/0425Z. Protons
greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 85
pfu at 01/2205Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 362 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (03 Oct), quiet to
unsettled levels on day two (04 Oct) and quiet levels on day three (05
Oct). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing
threshold on day one (03 Oct).
III. Probabilidades del evento 03 Oct a 05 Oct
| Clase M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 20% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 02 Oct 108 Previsto 03 Oct-05 Oct 110/110/110 Media de 90 Días 02 Oct 111
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 01 Oct 006/004 Estimado Afr/Ap 02 Oct 024/035 Previsto Afr/Ap 03 Oct-05 Oct 016/020-008/008-005/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 03 Oct a 05 Oct
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 10% | 05% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 01% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 25% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 50% | 20% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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