Viendo archivo del viernes, 4 octubre 2013
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2013 Oct 04 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 277 Publicado el 2200Z a las 04 Oct 2013IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 03-2100Z hasta 04-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
04/0332Z from Region 1856 (N08E43). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (05 Oct,
06 Oct, 07 Oct).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 03-2100Z a 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 467 km/s at
03/2223Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 03/2139Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached 1 nT at 04/1514Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 523 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (05 Oct) and quiet to unsettled levels
on days two and three (06 Oct, 07 Oct).
III. Probabilidades del evento 05 Oct a 07 Oct
| Clase M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 04 Oct 109 Previsto 05 Oct-07 Oct 110/105/100 Media de 90 Días 04 Oct 110
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 03 Oct 005/004 Estimado Afr/Ap 04 Oct 002/002 Previsto Afr/Ap 05 Oct-07 Oct 006/005-007/008-008/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 05 Oct a 07 Oct
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 30% | 30% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 30% | 30% |
All times in UTC
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