Viendo archivo del viernes, 18 octubre 2013
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2013 Oct 18 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 291 Publicado el 2200Z a las 18 Oct 2013IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 17-2100Z hasta 18-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C8 event observed at
18/1526Z from Region 1861 (S07W79). There are currently 10 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on day one (19 Oct) and likely to be low
with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days two and three (20 Oct,
21 Oct).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 17-2100Z a 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 421 km/s at
17/2105Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 3594 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (19 Oct, 20 Oct) and quiet to
active levels on day three (21 Oct).
III. Probabilidades del evento 19 Oct a 21 Oct
| Clase M | 30% | 15% | 15% |
| Clase X | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 18 Oct 140 Previsto 19 Oct-21 Oct 140/130/125 Media de 90 Días 18 Oct 111
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 17 Oct 010/011 Estimado Afr/Ap 18 Oct 003/004 Previsto Afr/Ap 19 Oct-21 Oct 006/005-006/005-010/012
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 19 Oct a 21 Oct
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 05% | 05% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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