Viendo archivo del miércoles, 30 octubre 2013
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2013 Oct 30 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 303 Publicado el 2200Z a las 30 Oct 2013IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 29-2100Z hasta 30-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a X2 event observed at
29/2154Z from Region 1875 (N06W92). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (31 Oct, 01 Nov, 02 Nov).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 29-2100Z a 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
413 km/s at 30/1704Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 30/0843Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 30/0713Z. Protons greater
than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4 pfu at
30/0925Z.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (31 Oct), quiet to
unsettled levels on day two (01 Nov) and quiet levels on day three (02
Nov). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a chance of crossing threshold on
day one (31 Oct) and have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day
two (01 Nov).
III. Probabilidades del evento 31 Oct a 02 Nov
| Clase M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Clase X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Protón | 25% | 10% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 30 Oct 142 Previsto 31 Oct-02 Nov 140/135/135 Media de 90 Días 30 Oct 117
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 29 Oct 003/004 Estimado Afr/Ap 30 Oct 011/012 Previsto Afr/Ap 31 Oct-02 Nov 019/025-013/015-007/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 31 Oct a 02 Nov
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 45% | 25% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 20% | 25% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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