Viendo archivo del lunes, 23 diciembre 2013
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2013 Dec 23 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 357 Publicado el 2200Z a las 23 Dec 2013IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 22-2100Z hasta 23-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
22/2208Z from Region 1928 (S16W74). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one and two (24 Dec,
25 Dec) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on day
three (26 Dec).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 22-2100Z a 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 345 km/s at
23/1148Z.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (24 Dec), quiet to active levels on day
two (25 Dec) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (26 Dec).
Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold
on days one and two (24 Dec, 25 Dec).
III. Probabilidades del evento 24 Dec a 26 Dec
| Clase M | 60% | 60% | 40% |
| Clase X | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Protón | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 23 Dec 136 Previsto 24 Dec-26 Dec 135/130/125 Media de 90 Días 23 Dec 141
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 22 Dec 002/001 Estimado Afr/Ap 23 Dec 003/003 Previsto Afr/Ap 24 Dec-26 Dec 005/005-007/010-008/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 24 Dec a 26 Dec
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 05% | 25% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 01% | 10% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 25% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 35% | 25% |
All times in UTC
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